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08 -- Loss scenarios

ID Scenario UCA Loss
LS-1 The thermal estimator's covariance grows during a heat-soak; the self-model still reports the central estimate without widening its p95 quantile. The controller acts on the central estimate and pushes the simulator into MISSION past the headroom threshold. UCA-state_transition-provided-unsafely L-1, L-2
LS-2 The comms estimator's particle filter converges on CONNECTED while the link's actual loss is climbing. The controller publishes a CoT message; the downstream TAK server learns of the unit's position from a link that has already gone away. UCA-comms_publish-provided-unsafely L-3
LS-3 A long scenario exhausts the Anthropic daily cap. The controller's next call returns CapExhausted. Because the controller does not consult device_info for cap state, the failure is treated as a transient error and retried. The simulator stays in MISSION past the safe envelope. UCA-inference_cloud-provided-unsafely L-1, L-2
LS-4 logrotate runs without chattr +a. The post-rotate audit file is writable; an attacker (or a buggy script) edits a record. The hash of the post-edit body matches the recorded SHA-256 only by coincidence. UCA-audit-degraded-rotation L-4
LS-5 A second OAuth client registers because single-client lockdown was disabled for debugging. The lockdown is not re-enabled. The second client drives the simulator into a posture the operator did not intend. UCA-oauth-misconfig L-2, L-3